The Scent of a Loser?

The WaPo has yet another critique of the Kerry campaign and the message is very easy to read between the lines.

New Blood at Heart of Kerry Campaign

A new center of power has emerged inside John F. Kerry's presidential campaign, with several veteran Democratic operatives moving quickly to consolidate their influence and effectively take over the nominee's daily message and strategy in the six weeks until the election.

This is a shocking admission that 6 weeks out from an election that Kerry is not the center of his campaign. I disagree, he is and that is the problem, not the operatives. Try to recall one clear position on any issue, you can't. He's been all over the map. This graf doesn't provide much comfort either.

One of the abiding truths about Kerry -- and one that is often frustrating to his aides -- is that he will listen to anyone. He is known as a political loner, but he is also constantly on the phone and will take counsel at any time from any number of parties, be it fellow senators, longtime friends, advisers in ill-defined roles such as Shrum or freelancers such as Begala. Kerry is not a micro-manager, friends say, but he is prone to engaging in a vast and drawn-out process by which his decisions are informed.

It's quite apparent from this article and other recent Democrat critiques of his campaign that Kerry has difficulty adapting to a fluid situation. One really can't get any sense of how Kerry would handle a crisis and his changing message does not instill confidence in his ability to react quickly under circumstance fraught with uncertainty such as an attack on the US. As much as partisans cry foul whever this standard is mentioned, it is the key issue of the election that crosses all voter demographics.

Since the CBS debaucle, MSM has begun to realize that Kerry is a tar baby of sorts. This laughable spin by Al Hunt amply demonstrates how far out on a limb many will go.

What If the Polls Are Wrong?

Presidential elections are poll-driven. The candidate ahead in the surveys usually gets better coverage, and the results energize supporters. The one behind often comes across as doing little right, and campaigns and constituencies lose confidence.

But what if the polls are wrong, and we aren't surveying the real likely electorate?

This might be more than an academic issue. A number of polls this presidential race show a gap in the preferences of registered voters vs. likely voters. In these models, the president usually does better with likely voters, the figure most news organizations emphasize. To get to likely voters, all polling organizations use what is called a "screen," asking questions to determine who is likely to actually turn out on election day.

The heart of his problem is is not the picture painted by the GOP, the Swifties, media, dirty tricksters or polling data. It is Kerry. Perhaps he will manage to bring enough Clinton operatives aboard the campaign to control and project an image, but a MSM spun/poll/focus group driven cardboard cutout will not dispell the serious questions about his leadership.

It will always come back to 9/11. The Dems still don't get it.

Posted by feste at September 17, 2004 08:39 AM | TrackBack