The Rest Of The Story

The conventional media wisdom: the Popular Party's defeat was a response to Aznar's support of the US and involvment in Iraq. Not exactly.

In a stunning backlash, the ruling Popular Party of Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar was swept out of office Sunday, as voters turned on a government they believe provoked last week's bombings with its support for the U.S.-led war on Iraq.

It was the first time a government that backed the Iraq war has been voted out. The vast majority of Spaniards opposed the war and victorious Socialist party leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero had pledged to bring home the 1,300 troops Spain has stationed in Iraq when their tour of duty ends in July.

However isn't it interesting that TIME reported that similar populist dynamics drove Aznar's election in 1996?

AMID A MURDEROUS WAVE OF BASQUE TERRORISM, THE CONSERVATIVE POPULAR PARTY IS POISED TO END 13 YEARS OF SOCIALIST RULE AND LEAD SPAIN INTO A NEW ERA

Not since the failed military putsch of 1981 had there been such an upsurge of public indignation. Nearly a million people converged on central Madrid last week following the murders of two prominent Spaniards by the Basque separatist group E.T.A. (Basque Homeland and Liberty). Enraged by the violence that has left more than 700 people dead over the past three decades, businessmen, workers and students braved a freezing rain to join politicians and union leaders in the 3-km march from Plaza de Colon to the Puerta del Sol. Many of the marchers had painted their hands white in a symbolic condemnation of E.T.A.'s bloodspilling. Others chanted, "Basta Ya!" (Enough!).

At the head of the cortege was a large banner bearing the words AGAINST VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM AND FOR FREEDOM. It was carried by a constellation of past and present political leaders, including Socialist Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez and conservative Jose Maria Aznar, the man who is poised to unseat him in Sunday's election, according to the latest polls. Their handshake was splashed across the front page of El Mundo the next morning. But it was only a brief truce in an electoral contest that became increasingly bitter in its final days.

At elaborately choreographed rallies around the country, Aznar, 43, accused the Socialists of corruption, cronyism and mendacity. Gonzalez, 53, portrayed his challenger as a closet far-rightist who would dismantle the welfare system and turn away from European integration. Behind the campaign fireworks, though, the amazing reality was that just 20 years after the death of dictator Francisco Franco, Spain had become a mature, stable democracy in which power changed hands via ballot boxes and not bullets. "The alternation of power is crucial," says sociologist Victor Perez-Diaz. "Electing a conservative government is a way of exorcising the specter of Francoism."

Aznar had many problems that contributed to his party's defeat, the March 11 bombings pushed voters over the edge. Aznar's handling of the oil spill disaster off the country's north-west coast resulting from the sinking of the tanker Prestige created massive protests and began the erosion of popular support much as George H.W. Bush was taken to task for his reponse to Hurricane Andrew.

Aznar's rentless pursuit and crackdown on the Basque separatist group ETA and his presidency of the EU was seen by the Socialists as a ploy to reform Spain's welfare programs and weaken unions. They skillfully used working class discontent over reforms to erode Aznar's popularity and his party in the countryside.

Since he (Aznar) took office in 1996, his government's program of privatization, liberalization, and labor market reforms has helped transform Spain into one of Europe's fastest growing countries. Over the last five years, the Spanish economy has added 3 million jobs--one out of four created in Europe. Growth this year is forecast at 2.2%, compared with 1.2% to 1.4% for the EU. "The Spanish have shown that market liberalization creates growth," says Manuel Balmaseda, economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria in Madrid.

Spain's politics are still emerging from Franco's long shadow as the two opposing ideologies vie for control of the social agenda. However, domestic politics aside, Spanish voters sent terrorists the worst possible message.

The lesson taken from the Spanish elections is that we are now at even greater risk if the outcome convinces terrorists that an attack in America will defeat Bush.

Posted by feste at March 15, 2004 09:49 AM | TrackBack