Do I detect a DNC talking point? Stuart Rothenberg in *Roll Call remarks
Bush’s lead in most of the recent surveys is based on a strong Republican bias in the “likely voter” sample. That bias results from greater Republican enthusiasm, and reflects Kerry’s weakness.
Rothenberg posits a Kerry Surge, well maybe, sort of, perhaps.
President Bush has gone from embattled incumbent underdog to surprising frontrunner as Americans have started to evaluate the presidential candidates in terms of their ability to lead the fight against terrorism. Republicans are energized, while Democrats are criticizing the campaign of Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.).Seems like the perfect time for me to predict a Kerry Surge.
As was the case with the Bush Surge, I have no data to warrant such a prediction, nor has any evidence emerged that a Kerry Surge (or Comeback or Rebound, if you prefer) is under way. But I think we’ll see some sort of tightening of the race before Election Day.
Mind you, I’m not saying Kerry will (or will not) overtake Bush and win the White House — just as in June, when I predicted the Bush Surge but didn’t assert that it would carry him to victory. For now, all I’m certain about is that there will be a flurry of media excitement — and probably even some polling — about a Kerry Comeback.
Bush has had a terrific six weeks. Starting shortly after the Democratic convention, his numbers began to improve, and unlike Kerry, Bush had the kind of convention that apparently changed the way voters view the presidential race.
Plus, of course, Kerry’s campaign has seemed to be in total disarray.
[...]
Over the past few days, Kerry has turned to more traditional Democratic themes, including gun control and alleged Republican insensitivity toward the black community. This may or may not indicate a turn to the left that would motivate the party’s base — as both Dukakis and Gore did in ’88 and ’00, respectively — but even if it doesn’t, Kerry is likely to take steps to energize his base over the next few weeks.
Problem with grasping the gun control issue/straw, is that the Dems blame gun control for losing control of Congress and had no appetite for extending the bill either. The Kerry's campaign's lack of diversity gives lie to the Rothenberg's second point. One only has to look at the Bush Administration to see who walks the walk. Rothenberg concludes:
Unfortunately for Democrats, even a Kerry Surge does not guarantee a victory. The Republicans have successfully defined him in an unflattering way and have made the contest a referendum on the war on terror. And under those terms, Kerry is in big, big trouble.
The MSM really doesn't get it...9/11 made the War on terror the issue, not Carl Rove.
(*Roll Call subscription req'd)