Alan Forkum and Tom Maguire sum up the Clarke side show.
Instapundit posts this interesting graph and link. Apart from the partisan bitch-slapping contests, Clarke's testimony and week long media appearances aren't working for Kerry. Clarke's book cuts both ways, as 62% place blame on Clinton and 54% on Bush for failing to prevent the 9/11 attacks. Even worse for Kerry, he can't get his message out as the media frenzy sucks air from his campaign as Bush ramps up ad buys in key states.
The Dems think they will get a convention bump as the 9/11 Comission reports lands as they open in Boston, but I think not. Just as the early Dem primaries are not providing a lasting media boost, Clarke's 15 minutes came too early in the election cycle. Thanks to Clarke's ego-fest/book tour, the commission will be very old news, with most Americans having made up their mind.
By mid-summer the media will have a new focus as the convention venues are security nightmares, both located above railway/subway stations and a 9/11 anniversary approaching. I predict that terrorism concerns and the inevitable elevated alerts will consume the media. Kerry's nomination may well become a peripheral story to massive security concerns. Bush can use his incumbancy to great advantage as the White House nudges the news cycle to drown Kerry and the Dems out. Factor in a possible terrorist attack, ala Madrid, in Europe and Kerry becomes a footnote.
Coverage of the GOP convention in NYC will overshadow the Dems many fold as Bush will be a media lightning rod. The Hate America crowd is organizing to mount protests that may suck the air from Kerry after his convention, all but killing his media bounce. The DNC made two strategic errors, they front loaded their primary season too early and chose Boston for their convention.
And let us not forget that the Olympics will occur between the two conventions. It has been theorized that Kerry will not enjoy a lengthy bump from his convention.
Posted by: a new reader at March 31, 2004 08:12 AM